Major study warns of rising phosphorus risks 

EU faces tightening phosphorus supply as demand surges. 

A new scientific study warns that Europe is heading toward an increasingly strained phosphorus supply. EU agricultural demand for phosphorus may more than double in the coming decades. Demand from batteries, photovoltaics and semiconductor manufacturing could grow to as much as ten times today’s levels. 
 
The study concludes that global phosphorus demand could exceed supply by 2040–2050, increasing competition between food production and fast-growing technology sectors. At the same time, the EU remains 83% dependent on imported phosphorus, while 90% of global geological reserves are located in just five countries, according to the article published in Science of the Future.  
 
“Europe is sleepwalking into a phosphorus crisis. We cannot secure our food supply while relying on imports from a handful of countries like Russia and Morocco. If Europe is serious about food security and resilience, we must start recovering the phosphorus already circulating in our wastewater,” says Pär Larshans, Chief Sustainability Officer at the Ragn-Sells Group. 
 
The study stresses that mining and processing virgin phosphate rock is highly carbon-intensive, with its climate impact expected to double by 2050. By contrast, recovering phosphorus from wastewater can significantly lower the climate footprint of phosphorus fertilisers, in some analyses by up to around half, according to the authors. Despite this, recovery solutions remain largely absent from EU climate models and policy tools. 
 
A key finding is that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could play a central role in boosting phosphorus recovery. To do so, it may need to be updated with measures such as rebates for recycled content, climate labelling, and technology-transfer incentives. As the authors write: “The circular economy of wastewater is a recognised mitigation option, yet emerging recovery technologies are underreported in climate models.” 
 
“This study shows clearly that phosphorus recovery needs far greater political priority. Recognising phosphorus as strategically important and removing remaining barriers to recycled phosphorus is essential for food security, competitiveness and Europe’s long-term resilience”, says Jan Svärd, CEO of EasyMining. 
 
The study is published just as the United States added phosphate to its 2025 Critical Minerals List, placing it on par with lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements. Ragn-Sells’ innovation company EasyMining has developed Ash2Phos, which recovers high-purity phosphorus from sewage sludge ash, producing the recycled calcium phosphate RevoCaP. Two full-scale facilities are now being built in Sweden and Germany. 
 
For further comment or interviews please contact:
Pär Larshans, Chief Sustainability Officer at Ragn-Sells Group, +46 70 927 29 63, par.larshans@ragnsells.com
Debby Porter Laffitte, Press Officer at Ragn-Sells Group: press@ragnsells.com, +46 10 723 24 00

 
Fact box: About the study 

Title: Scenarios for embedding phosphorus recovery into the international regime through EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism 
Published in: Science of the Future (Science of the Total Environment), 2025 

Key findings: 
- EU agricultural demand may increase by more than 100% 
- Demand from batteries, PV and semiconductors may increase tenfold 
- Global demand may exceed supply by 2040–2050 
- Climate impact of primary phosphorus may double by 2050 
- EU is 83% import-dependent 
- Reserves are 90% concentrated in five countries 
- Recovery technologies are mostly absent from EU climate governance 
- CBAM could incentivise recovery via rebates, labelling, tech transfers and obligations 
 
Fact Box: What is Phosphorus?  
Phosphorus is essential for life, critical for plant growth, and indispensable for both mineral fertilisers and animal feed. EasyMining, part of Ragn-Sells, has developed the Ash2Phos process that recovers more than 90% of the phosphorus in sewage sludge ash. The recovered product, RevoCaP, can be used as fertiliser or in feed production. 
Calcium phosphate from sewage sludge ash (such as RevoCaP) is approved for organic farming in the EU, but outdated feed rules still prevent its use in animal feed. 
Learn more about phosphorus and food security: https://www.ragnsells.com/circular-transition/think-circular/foodsecurity/